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A leading private equity investment firm focused on Central and Eastern Europe, with 3.2 billion of funds raised and managed.
What did Hotel Solutions Partnership achieve for the client?
The credit committee reviewed our report and unanimously approved the investment in the roll-out of 4 holiday parks in Poland.
A team of ex-Centre Parcs executives had developed a comprehensive business plan to establish holiday parks in Poland targeting the short-break family holiday market. Having approached our client for investment, an external consultancy was engaged to critique their business plan. It was felt that the business model and operating assumptions were sound. However, prior to committing the finance necessary to acquire the sites and implement the development, the client needed further research to inform their credit committee deliberations. They assigned us to quickly, independently and concisely:
Consultants: Katrina Craig, Ewa Kossakowska, Ian Graham
Within a matter of four or five weeks complete the research and form evidence-based hypotheses, meet with the client and discuss our findings. Within a further two weeks document our findings and discussions in a written report to be presented to the client’s credit committee.
Our consultants received and reviewed the business plan, all research collated by the development team and the report by the external consultant. We analysed the data and formed preliminary hypothesis relating to:
Site location / selection
Occupancy analysis (main driver)
Katrina then identified the gaps in the data, obtained and analysed further demographic data showing the number of households of selected market segments within a 200 km radius (i.e. 3-hour drive time) of one of the proposed sites. She also obtained and analysed the concentration of these target segments for the whole of Poland. Moreover, she sought published and proprietary evidence of the Polish informal economy (i.e. the grey market or shadow economy).
In order to project the penetration rate of the holiday parks in Poland, it was necessary to study the launch and growth of the same leisure concept in Germany and arrive at the set of assumptions that could be true for Poland. We identified a benchmark catchment area in Eastern Germany and calculated the penetration rate (aka participation degree) among those residing within the zone. The penetration rate, calculated from the number of rental nights achieved by the holiday parks from the catchment population, was applied to the proposed first site in Poland to determine the appropriate scale of the development.
Concurrently Ewa contacted the central statistical bureau of the Polish government as well as the Polish offices of private enterprises dealing in marketing lifestyle data. She gathered relevant data on the following:
Income and disposable (personal) income (DPI) of the Polish market
Domestic and foreign spending patterns of Poles (for short break holidays)
Spending patterns of foreign visitors in Poland (same as above)
Furthermore Ewa conducted structured interviews with representatives of the target segments, as well as with business people who sell products and services to the target segments and with people with insight on Polish consumer trends.
Finally, we developed a numeric model flowing from the market data. This model allowed us to quantify the market potential today and in the medium term. On several occasions we met with our client and refined the analysis. We finalised the report and delivered it in time for the credit committee meeting.