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Evaluating the market for short break family holidays in central Europe

The client

A leading private equity investment firm focused on Central and Eastern Europe, with 3.2 billion of funds raised and managed.


What did Hotel Solutions Partnership achieve for the client?

Our commentary addressed the plausibility of the business plan, estimated the size of the Polish market, and determined where the resorts should be located to maximise access to the target market. Our opinion was anchored in our research of relevant demographics and other data. The credit committee reviewed our report and unanimously approved the investment in the roll-out of 4 holiday parks in Poland.

Background

A team of ex-Center Parcs executives had developed a business plan to establish holiday parks in Poland targeting the short-break family holiday market. Prior to committing the finance necessary the client needed further research to inform their credit committee deliberations. HSP was assigned to: review Polish population and demographic trends and whether there is the market, advise how many parks and where and review the capital expenditure budget.

Consultants: Ian Graham, Katrina Craig, Ewa Kossakowska

Methodology

Our consultants analysed the data and formed preliminary hypothesis relating to site location, pricing analysis, and occupancy analysis.

We prepared demographic reports showing the number of households in the identified target segments within a certain radius of the proposed sites. We also defined and obtained data on the concentration of target segments and reviewed the relevance of the Polish Shadow Economy. To project the penetration rate of the holiday parks we used assumptions and identified a benchmark catchment area in Eastern Germany. Using this area’s penetration rate, applied to the proposed first site in Poland, we determined the scale of the development.

In addition we contacted the central statistical bureau of the Polish government and marketing lifestyle data on: income and disposable income, domestic and foreign spending patterns for short break holidays. We also conducted structured interviews with representatives of the target segments, as well as with business people with insight on Polish consumer trends. We introduced the client to relevant cost consultant experts and facilitated a discussion of key capital expenditure projections.

Finally, we developed a numeric model flowing from the market data that allowed us to quantify the market potential. We finalised the report and delivered it in time for the credit committee meeting.

 


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